Saturday 31st August

Sandown
Atalanta Stakes Group 3 (1m)

It's difficult to see where the pace may emerge from, Lavender's Blue could provide it but it's unlikely to be too strong. Being at the head of affairs may well be an advantage.

Preference is for those rated at least 105, and at least placed last time out. Based on the OR trend of winners rated 105 or higher this does not look a strong renewal. Only 2 qualify on all trends and both are likely to be the market leaders. Sir Michael Stoute has won this on 3 occasions in the last decade and all have been favourites. He saddles Jubiloso in this year's renewal. She looked a very exciting filly when trouncing a group of colts on her 2nd run. She stepped up to 1m and Group 1 level in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot where she travelled well and finished a creditable 3rd. She returned to 7f at Goodwood in the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes, she found trouble in running and when finally clear to a short while to pick up before coming home with a strong run to again finish 3rd. On that evidence this mile is what she is crying out for, as this may develop into a sprint she may have to race a little more prominently than the previous 2 occasions.

The other qualifier Duneflower looked ready for this step up to Group company when putting in an impressive display at Ascot winning the Listed Valiant Stakes from a useful looking field. She posseses a good turn of foot just like her rival and travelled well in what appeared a slowly run mile. She's learning with every run and could be an interesting filly from the Gosden stable.

Selection:

This is a difficult decision as Jubiloso has looked a class act all season, but preference is for the improving Duneflower. She is a strong finisher and may well put that to her advantage up the stiff finish at Sandown.

Solario Stakes Group 3 (7f)

This has been won by some class acts in the past including Kingman, Masar and last year Too Darn Hot. On that evidence stamina is usually needed to take this as opposed to speed. 

Al Suhail looked impressive winning a novice at Yarmouth with a good turn of foot, the form is yet to be tested but he pulled well clear despite running keenly early on. The pace of this race may well be set up by a pacemaker from the same stable. He is by Dubawi so should have no problem getting a mile in the future. Positive brings Group form to the fore with a 2nd behind Pinatubo in the Vintage Stakes. He was 5l behind but was another 5l clear of the rest and looks one to respect and is anither bred for the mile division by Dutch Art. Visinari was all the rage earlier in the season but had his reputation dented when 4th last time out behind Pinatubo and Positive.

Selection:

A punt is taken on Al Suhail with a pacemaker likely to provide a decent pace to aim at he could use his speed at the business end to win this.

Some 2yo to note

Well at least the blog has found some winners, however that goes down as my worst ever Ebor Festival.
Zaaki came good in the Strensall Stakes coming with his customary strong finish after being keen early on. Eminence couldn't pick up in what was a muddling Melrose as they went quick early only to slow the pace during the mid part of affairs making it a bit of a sprint to the line. In The City Of York Stakes Sir Dancealot probably showed he was still feeling the effects of a run on softy 7 days previously, Laurens and Shine So Bright set a blistering gallop but surprisingly they didn't come back to the field and set a course record.
I should not have placed the bet as there were too many possibilities and I was influenced by some comments from connections, so that must be cut out in future.
At Royal Windsor Jamie Spencer brought Desert Encounter from the back to win cosily in what was a strongly run race.
Periodically I will post on some 2yo from recent races that I think are worth noting. The first ones are below.

Coming with a late run after the penny dropped in a Bath maiden on Wednesday was Tommy Rock, he was sent off favourite for the race but blew his chances early on. He will learn from the experience.
Two days later at Goodwood in a 1m Novice race there was an impressive winner in Volkan Star but the well beaten 2nd Hold Fast made up ground late on and along with 3rd Oslo was well clear of the rest. Hold Fast is bred to stay further but should pick up a race soon and Oslo looks one to note, he battled with the winner for a while despite being too keen early on. At the same meeting Qaadim came with a catching late run to grab 2nd spot, trained by Roger Varian he looks one to note and should be capable of progress.
That evening Cosmic Power had his 2nd run and again ran a little green, but the penny dropped and he came with a late burst to pass every horse bar the winner, he should soon win.

Saturday Evening From Royal Windsor

Winter Hill Stakes Group 3 (1m 2f)

Usual small field for this regular evening feature at Royal Windsor. Star of Bengal is a likely front runner and could face a battle with Matterhorn if he steps forward, both failed mto place last time out with the former being inconvenienced on soft ground and could step forward if he makes the transition from handicap company. His last run was in the Wolferton and the form of that Listed event is quite hot. Matterhorn is a course winner and looks capable of winning at Group level but he disappointed in Germany last time out. He has come 2nd best to some useful improvers this season. The likely favourite Queen Power receives 13lb from Desert Encounter and 10lb from the rest on her first attempt at open company. Unexposed and could prove to be a worthy market leader but the price looks short. Accidental Agent steps back to a realistic level and attempts this trip for the first time. If the pace is strong the staying power of Desert Encounter could come into play, he's won twice before at this twisting track and comes here on the back of a win at Goodwood.

Selection:

Worth a shot at Desert Encounter, he's in top form and likes this track. He will need a strong pace as he is better over further but at around 4/1 he looks good value.

Ebor Meeting (4th Day)

Cannot say anything other than that was very disappointing from Spartan Fighter yesterday. Slow to break and was in the worst position from there on. He did get slightly blocked but in truth did not look good enough for this level. I am in danger of not recording a win this week, which will be a first for me at York, so onward we go in trepidation.

Strensall Stakes Group 3 (1m 1f)

Forest Ranger should provide the pace but with several in this field that prefer to be held up he may not get pressed for the lead, so the gallop may not be too strong. That could be to his advantage but he looks to have a tough task in trying to defy a 6lb penalty for winning the Huxley Stakes at Chester in May, he should go better than last time on this faster ground and was placed in this 2 years ago. One that may need a strong gallop is Bangkok, he looked a promising middle distance 3yo at the start of the season winning over 1m 2f at Doncaster. He followed that with a classy performance in the Classic Trial at Sandown and his best since then has been a 2nd to Japan in the King Edward VII Stakes, where he came from last to first round the turn to the home straight but couldn't live with the future Juddmonte winner. That is obviously very good form but this looks on the short side today. Ryan Moore rides Zaaki for Sir Michael Stoute and has to carry a 3lb penalty for his eye catching win in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom, where he came from what seemed an impossible position at the rear to win with a fast finish, he then lost out in a desperate finish in the Summer Mile at Ascot. Excuses for his last run over 7f and this fast ground will be right up his street. Space Traveller may well be sitting behind Forest Ranger, a slow pace might make him a little keen as he is used to the faster run 7f races. This step up looks a little too far and is best watched today. The likely favourite is Cambridgeshire winner Wissahickon, who has been in form at Lingfield during the early months of the year including winning the Winter Derby. He didn't have to beat much that day but did it in style. Comes here from a 4 month break but goes well fresh.

Selection:

Preference is for the strong finishing Zaaki. He should relish the fast ground and can show his best on a flatter track despite carrying a penalty. 

Melrose Handicap Class 2 (1m 6f)

The pace should be decent with Skymax and Rochester House at the head of affairs. there should be plenty of time for them to sort themselves out as to running order before getting to the first bend, those drawn wide are mostly hold up horses so there shouldn't be any jostling for position early on. Rochester House is a proven stayer with form over further and may have to strtch this field if he is to defy top weight and a lot of his form has been achieved on slower ground as has his likely companion. Eminence ran at Goodwood, a festival that has been an influence on this race in the past. He was 3rd in the Unibet Handicap where he travelled strongly and may have been closer if he hadn't met a little trouble in the home straight. He met trouble at Ascot in the King George V Stakes where he was a strong finishing 3rd. Improving throughout the season, he should have a strong chance today. Another who has been showing improvement over middle distance trips is Kiefer, he looks a stayer and is on a handy mark. 

Selection:

I like the look of Eminence, he should improve for the step up in trip and is a strong traveller with a turn of foot. He also has experience in some big field handicaps and should continue improving. 

City Of York Stakes Group 2 (7f)

This should be a typically run 7f on fast ground, Laurens has been hoovering Group 1 races against her own sex but has so far failed to win in open comoany where she looks to be cruising but is usually found wanting, this drop back in trip might not be the answer as she is up against some experienced hirses at this distance. One who will relish the fast ground is Sir Dancealot winner of back to back Lennox Stakes where he won with his customary burst of speed in the closing stages. He has to defy a penalty but has done so before in last Year's Hungerford and may find the field coming back to him again if, as seems likely they go too quickly up front. Cape Byron drops in class after failing to feature in the July Cup. He won the Wokingham at Royal Ascot and is proven at the trip by his Victoria Cup win prior to that. Le Brivido has been disappointing this season and doesn't seem to find a lot under pressure. One who met trouble in the Lennox was Speak In Colours and would have got closer on what was a first attempt at this trip, whilst he has placed on fast ground he does appear to want a little give underfoot. Shine So Bright ran well in the 2,000 Guineas and this drop back to 7f will suit. He has had a long time off since Newmarket so will need to be fit to feature in this.

Selection:

This looks a strong renewal with several likely to feature, I have not been let down by Sir Dancealot (EW) in the past and with fast ground and a strong pace he should be in the mix despite the penalty.

Good luck, I'll post a piece on the Winter Hill Stakes from Windsor this evening if I have time.

Ebor Meeting (3rd Day)

Nothing more to be said but that was a disappointing run from Under The Stars in the Lowther. She was restrained slightly and a bit keen early on but in truth the winner was given a free run in front on a day that proved to favour front-runners. The Princess Margaret Stakes proved influential but the form was turned around on this occasion.
Enable as expected proved too classy and her regular rival Magical must be unlucky in having to meet this superstar when she herself is a class filly.
I'm at risk of drawing a blank this year if I don't get my act together.
As for today the Lonsdale looks a certainty for Stardivarius,  they may try to test his stamina but they tried that in the Gold Cup and failed. Dee Ex Bee looks a cup horse to follow next year, presuming John Gosden's charge retires.

Gimcrack Stakes Group 2 (6f)

This doesn't appear to be a strong renewal on paper, Threat  brings both Royal Ascot and Richmond Stakes to the table but there are no runners that have competed in the July Stakes or the Prix Robert Papin, races that have influenced this Group 2 in the past. Threat was 2nd in the Coventry and followed that with another 2nd in the Richmond. The Coventry form has been boosted by Golden Horde and Royal Lytham since winning at Group level but several have let the form down and they did finish in a line at Ascot with a few closing in on the leader late on. The Richmond was won by Golden Horde by just under 1l in a race where it was an advantage to race prominently. Both the winner and 2nd were clear of the rest but the form might be suspect as they didn't go too fast early on. Currently at 7/4 he looks short enough in a race where several improvers could to be lurking. 
One of those could well be Spartan Fighter who beat subsequent Norfolk and Prix Robert Papin winner A' Ali in a close finish at Ripon in June. He followed that by conceding a penalty at York in a novice race and deserves a shot at Group level. Likes to race prominently which is a trait that often pays off here and at around 15/2 is not a bad price for a promising sort. Abstemious won what looks a weak novice over course & distance and likes to race up with the pace and is another at a price that is worth considering. 

Selection:
With a short enough favourite I like the look of Spartan Fighter (EW) as he links both Royal Ascot and Prix Robert Papin form via his close win over A' Ali. Should be up with the pace and has been kept for this by his stable.

Ebor Meeting (2nd Day)

Well as D:Ream said things can only get better, and look at Brian Cox now he's doing very well.
Yesterday was frustrating, in the Acomb Harpocrates went off at a blistering pace in first time blinkers and had most of the filed labouring behind. That shouldn't take anything away from the winner Valdemoro he proved a strong finisher and reeled the front-runner in to win well.

Valdemoro 

The Great Voltigeur looked a weak renewal and whilst I run the risk of being shot down in flames I think there will be a better horse than Logician at Doncaster. Constantinople cruised through but once again found nothing and he looks an enigma at present. The Juddmonte was a fantastic race, the tactics played out as expected and the two class horses in the field fought out a close finish with the 3yo getting up near the line.

Juddmonte winner Japan

As for today the Yorkshire Oaks should prove a penalty kick for Enable, so only one bet today.

Lowther Stakes Group 2 (6f)

Liberty Beach is a deserved favourite, she won her group at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary and followed that 4th place with wins at Sandown (Dragon Stakes) and Goodwood (Molecomb Stakes), in the latter she found a little trouble in running yet still came through strongly to win a shade cosily.
The step up to 6f should suit. She might well be pushed by Under The Stars who looked impressive when the penny dropped at Ripon, a race that looked weak at the time but has proven to be the source of a few wins. Not least in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot where she won with a well timed ride by P. J. McDonald. Again at the time that race looked a weak renewal and the form since has been mixed but possesses a turn of foot and must be respected.
William Haggas has won this on two occasions in the last decade with Besharah and Rosdu Queen, he saddles Wejdan today, she won her maiden at Newbury well and should get further this season. That race is yet to be tested but she will improve and commands respect. One at a big price is Celtic Beauty who was 2nd in the Albany before flopping in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes. She won well dropping back down to 5f and this return to 6f might take her out of her comfort zone.

Selection: 
It is rare for a winner to emerge on the back of a maiden win and one from either Royal Ascot or Princess Margaret Stakes has proven to be the ones to focus on in the past. With that in mind I am taken by Under The Stars as she looks an uncomplicated filly with a turn of foot. She lacks a little experience but could prove to be a very useful 2yo.

Wednesday 21st August

Not a good start to the blog in the Sovereign Stakes. The selection, King Ottaker, was poorly positioned due to a lack of tactical speed at the start and whilst we can claim to be unlucky when short of room as the race unfolded, in truth he didn't have the speed to be effective at a mile in that company. He needs further and possibly a drop in class. The winner, Kick On, looked a smart improving type.

The Ebor is one of my favourite festivals of the year and as usual I have taken the week off work and will be attending on the first day. 
I don't bet in sprints other than 2yo races so I'll be giving the opening sprint handicap a miss apart from a reverse forecast at the course. So my first bet of the day will be the Acomb Stakes a race that I've had a couple of winners in in recent years, Recorder (4/1) in 2015 and last year Phoenix Of Spain 8/1.

Acomb Stakes Group 2 (7f)

Often won by a lightly raced juvenile especially one coming off the back of a win over, those proven at the trip are preferred. Cobra Eye is amongst the market leaders in what looks a wide open race, he won in a close finish at Goodwood over 6f and the form has been boosted by the 2nd and 4th both winning next time. He doesn't strike me as needing a step up to 7f and the stable are in a bit of a lull at present. Persuasion is the early market leader, he looked impressive winning on debut over 7f at Goodwood. He was a little green early on but when the gaps opened the penny seemed to drop and he cruised through to win very cosily. The form is yet to be tested so we don't know the depth of the race but he could be a big player here granted the usual improvement on second run for a trainer who has won this twice in recent seasons.
Vitalogy looked good when winning a maiden at Naas, form has been franked by 2nd and 3rd home. He appeared to want the step up in trip from 6f and will be a threat here on that form. Richard Fahey saddles an impressive winner of a maiden at Doncaster in Valdermoro, he won going away over 7f on good to firm, although the form has taken a couple of knocks so the race was possibly on the weak side. 

Selection:
Persuasion 

Great Voltiguer Stakes Group 2 (1m 4f)

Trends I feel are influential for this are an official rating of 105 or higher, won at 1m 2f or further and won or placed last time out. As is often the case all the runners qualify on the distance trend, but only 2 pass the all three trends.

Influential races in the past have been the Derby and Derby Trials.

A small field but the pace looks likely to be a strong one with Jalmoud or Norway likely to step forward, the former only fails on the last run trend but in truth he looks unlikely to be troubling the judge as he has been unsuccessful on a few occasions at group level, despite showing promising signs in France. Logician has to be taken seriously as he hails from the yard of John Gosden and is currently unbeaten after three outings. He fails on the rating trend by 4lb, but he is now on 101 from 90 following an impressive display in a class 3 handicap over today's trip at Newbury. That was run at a good pace, so he will appreciate the stamina test here, he does look a galloper as opposed to possessing a turn of foot and should get further than 1m 4f. It's possible that Norway could be the pacemaker for Constantinople and if so this could be a real test at the trip. Aiden O'Brien often sets races up to be truly run and he is likely to want to see a potential St. Leger horse thoroughly tested. Already a Group 3 winner in Ireland, he then conceded 11lb to the winner in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot, going down by a neck after coming clear of the pack only to idle a little once on his own. In the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood he again had to show his hand early due to a muddling pace and looked green and unbalanced in the closing stages, he again went down by a neck this time conceding 3lb to the winner. He could be said to be a winner without a penalty here and wears blinkers for the first time in an attemptto aid his concentration. His conqueror that day was Nayef Road who looks to want further but will have his work cut out confirming the placings from Goodwood, although the stable are still in excellent form so he can't be totally discounted.

Selection:

Constantinople

Juddmonte International Group 1 (1m 2f 88y)

The race of the week for me and always has been. I've been present at a couple of shocks, the first when Ezzoud won at 28/1 in 1993 and more recently when Arabian Queen beat the hot favourite Golden Horn in a hard fought battle in 2015. There weren't many queuing at the bookies for a 50/1 winner.

This looks a decent renewal but the pace might not be overly strong with Crystal Ocean and Circus Maximus prominent runners, possibly Elarqam might step forward as he has in the past but also he could try to settle in behind on this step up in class. If so he could suffer as he has been known to be a little keen if he doesn't get a decent gallop.

Looking at the draw those three may well be able to break early and grab the inside rail early on, the likes of Lord Glitters and Japan may have to settle for a spot out wide as they approach the sharp turn to the back straight, where they will be widest of all at the long sweeping turn that takes them towards home. Regal Reality should grab a position behind the leaders from his low draw if he steps forward but King Of Comedy may have to suffer in a pocket from his inside stall, with the possibility he may not settle if the pace is weak.

They often come up the middle at York in the long run to the finish so gaps should appear for all, however last year they tracked to the stands side and if they do that this time those racing widest and in the centre of the pack could find themselves short of room just as Poet's Word did last year.

With all that in mind it's difficult to envisage anything other than Crystal Ocean continuing his excellent season, he has won Group races throughout the summer including the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot and ran Enable close in the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Several have live chances for a place but it's likely to be a no bet race for me this year as the price on the favourite looks a little short to be playing at, but I will see what the bookies are offering on the course.

I'll probably have a dabble in the Nursery, I used to leave these races alone but recently I've been getting involved and find them intriguing with several points to consider such as trip suitability, breeding and handicap mark.  

Thursday 15th August 2019

Sovereign Stakes Group 3 (1m) Salisbury

Trends:

Trends used for this race are official rating 105 or higher, distance winners or up to 1m 2f and won or placed last time out. I could not identify a key race that previous winners have run in or any trainers to note. Despite the mile division being a little disappointing this season, this looks a fair renewal with quite a number rated above the official rating trend of 105.

Qualifiers:

King Ottaker & Marie's Diamond

Pace & Tactics

Pace should be honest enough with Mojito and Kick On, but King Ottaker may well want to ensure this is a stamina test as he is a winner at 1m 2f, so may be pressing or sitting just behind the leaders. Several of this field opposed each other in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, where they met the improving Sangarius, and are setting their sights a little lower here.

Both Mojito and Kick On fail on the last time out trend, the latter is the probable frontrunner, he faded like a light at Royal Ascot in the Hampton Court Stakes but he was sweating quite badly and may well benefit for the drop back to a mile having shown promise in the 2,000 Guineas. Mojito steps up in class after failing to justify being the favourite for the Golden Mile at Goodwood, he is one of a few that will need to settle better but this could be a calmer affair than the bustle of a big handicap. Connections of both are confident the softening ground conditions will not be a hindrance. King Ottaker is another who will relish the soft ground, he was 3rd in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot under 3l behind the smart Sangarius, that form received a boost when Fox Chairman won a Listed race at Newbury. He is yet to win at a mile but is unexposed, so could be a potential improver. Maries Diamond won the Listed Pomfret Stakes at Pontefract recently where he was allowed to set a steady pace in front. It looked a bit workmanlike and he will need to improve to step up to Group level as a 3yo.

Three others fail the last time out trend Great Scot finished down the filed in the Hampton Court Stakes, should be suited by the drop back in trip but needs to settle better to be a player at this level. Accidental Agent the winner of last year's Queen Anne is a bit of an enigma this season having failed to come out of the stalls at Royal Ascot, this drop in class could bring out the best in him if he settles and runs his race. Tabarrak has never really cut the mustard at Group level despite showing enough promise when winning Listed affairs and he could well find a few too good here. Flashcard fails the OR trend by 4lb but won a class 2 (3yo) handicap last time and has been making steady progress this summer. He was raised 10lb for that 4l win and if judged on how the 4th and 5th have done subsequently he will need to step on again to take this, but he is obviously an improving sort.

Selection:

There could be some defectors if it becomes too testing and it's difficult to stray away from King Ottaker, despite some improvers lurking in this field, he will relish the conditions and a strong pace. His 4l defeat by Sangarius at Royal Ascot appears good form.