Wednesday 21st August

Not a good start to the blog in the Sovereign Stakes. The selection, King Ottaker, was poorly positioned due to a lack of tactical speed at the start and whilst we can claim to be unlucky when short of room as the race unfolded, in truth he didn't have the speed to be effective at a mile in that company. He needs further and possibly a drop in class. The winner, Kick On, looked a smart improving type.

The Ebor is one of my favourite festivals of the year and as usual I have taken the week off work and will be attending on the first day. 
I don't bet in sprints other than 2yo races so I'll be giving the opening sprint handicap a miss apart from a reverse forecast at the course. So my first bet of the day will be the Acomb Stakes a race that I've had a couple of winners in in recent years, Recorder (4/1) in 2015 and last year Phoenix Of Spain 8/1.

Acomb Stakes Group 2 (7f)

Often won by a lightly raced juvenile especially one coming off the back of a win over, those proven at the trip are preferred. Cobra Eye is amongst the market leaders in what looks a wide open race, he won in a close finish at Goodwood over 6f and the form has been boosted by the 2nd and 4th both winning next time. He doesn't strike me as needing a step up to 7f and the stable are in a bit of a lull at present. Persuasion is the early market leader, he looked impressive winning on debut over 7f at Goodwood. He was a little green early on but when the gaps opened the penny seemed to drop and he cruised through to win very cosily. The form is yet to be tested so we don't know the depth of the race but he could be a big player here granted the usual improvement on second run for a trainer who has won this twice in recent seasons.
Vitalogy looked good when winning a maiden at Naas, form has been franked by 2nd and 3rd home. He appeared to want the step up in trip from 6f and will be a threat here on that form. Richard Fahey saddles an impressive winner of a maiden at Doncaster in Valdermoro, he won going away over 7f on good to firm, although the form has taken a couple of knocks so the race was possibly on the weak side. 

Selection:
Persuasion 

Great Voltiguer Stakes Group 2 (1m 4f)

Trends I feel are influential for this are an official rating of 105 or higher, won at 1m 2f or further and won or placed last time out. As is often the case all the runners qualify on the distance trend, but only 2 pass the all three trends.

Influential races in the past have been the Derby and Derby Trials.

A small field but the pace looks likely to be a strong one with Jalmoud or Norway likely to step forward, the former only fails on the last run trend but in truth he looks unlikely to be troubling the judge as he has been unsuccessful on a few occasions at group level, despite showing promising signs in France. Logician has to be taken seriously as he hails from the yard of John Gosden and is currently unbeaten after three outings. He fails on the rating trend by 4lb, but he is now on 101 from 90 following an impressive display in a class 3 handicap over today's trip at Newbury. That was run at a good pace, so he will appreciate the stamina test here, he does look a galloper as opposed to possessing a turn of foot and should get further than 1m 4f. It's possible that Norway could be the pacemaker for Constantinople and if so this could be a real test at the trip. Aiden O'Brien often sets races up to be truly run and he is likely to want to see a potential St. Leger horse thoroughly tested. Already a Group 3 winner in Ireland, he then conceded 11lb to the winner in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot, going down by a neck after coming clear of the pack only to idle a little once on his own. In the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood he again had to show his hand early due to a muddling pace and looked green and unbalanced in the closing stages, he again went down by a neck this time conceding 3lb to the winner. He could be said to be a winner without a penalty here and wears blinkers for the first time in an attemptto aid his concentration. His conqueror that day was Nayef Road who looks to want further but will have his work cut out confirming the placings from Goodwood, although the stable are still in excellent form so he can't be totally discounted.

Selection:

Constantinople

Juddmonte International Group 1 (1m 2f 88y)

The race of the week for me and always has been. I've been present at a couple of shocks, the first when Ezzoud won at 28/1 in 1993 and more recently when Arabian Queen beat the hot favourite Golden Horn in a hard fought battle in 2015. There weren't many queuing at the bookies for a 50/1 winner.

This looks a decent renewal but the pace might not be overly strong with Crystal Ocean and Circus Maximus prominent runners, possibly Elarqam might step forward as he has in the past but also he could try to settle in behind on this step up in class. If so he could suffer as he has been known to be a little keen if he doesn't get a decent gallop.

Looking at the draw those three may well be able to break early and grab the inside rail early on, the likes of Lord Glitters and Japan may have to settle for a spot out wide as they approach the sharp turn to the back straight, where they will be widest of all at the long sweeping turn that takes them towards home. Regal Reality should grab a position behind the leaders from his low draw if he steps forward but King Of Comedy may have to suffer in a pocket from his inside stall, with the possibility he may not settle if the pace is weak.

They often come up the middle at York in the long run to the finish so gaps should appear for all, however last year they tracked to the stands side and if they do that this time those racing widest and in the centre of the pack could find themselves short of room just as Poet's Word did last year.

With all that in mind it's difficult to envisage anything other than Crystal Ocean continuing his excellent season, he has won Group races throughout the summer including the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot and ran Enable close in the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Several have live chances for a place but it's likely to be a no bet race for me this year as the price on the favourite looks a little short to be playing at, but I will see what the bookies are offering on the course.

I'll probably have a dabble in the Nursery, I used to leave these races alone but recently I've been getting involved and find them intriguing with several points to consider such as trip suitability, breeding and handicap mark.