Saturday 21st September

This Saturday the main attraction nis a sprint handicap at Ayr, I would however rather focus on a couple of races at Newbury.
In the Legacy Cup Stakes Desert Encounter attempts to win this for the 2nd time in 3 years. He struggled last year on soft but this fast ground is just what he likes. Attempting the hat-trick after an impressive win at Windsor where he had the race run to suit his style of being held up and cooming from the rear with a strong run off a strong pace. He may not get that strong gallop today and he has to concede weight. My preference is for Pondus, an improving type who has finished 2nd to 2 useful horses recently. He looks to need further than 1m 2f, earlier this season he finished  down the field in the King Edward VII at that trip behind the highly progressive Japan. He should be towards the head of affairs so should be well placed to pounce once the race unfolds in what may be a steadily run affair.
The other race that catches my eye is the 2yo Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes. Pierre Lapin looked impressive when winning his one and only race at Haydock 5 months ago. He raced keenly and showed signs of inexperience so he is open to any amount of improvement. Mystery Power won the Superlative Stakes, which looked a below par renewal and the form since suggests it was. He followed that with a disappointing run in the Vintage where he was well beaten by Pinatubo, but so was everything else. He drops down in trip to 6f after being raced solely at 7f. Shadn beat the colts in a Listed race over course and distance and then went on to finish 3rd in the Prestige Stakes, a race that was strongly contested and has since seen the 2nd win a Group 3 plus the winner finishing 2nd in the May Hill. She will need to step up on that to win against these colts. Malotru brings Gimcrack form here, a race that has proven influential in the past.He met trouble during that race and ran on well after getting some daylight near the stands rail to finish 4th. The form looks strong with the winner having won the Champagne Stakes on next run and at around 6/1 he looks decent value.

St. Leger Day

The big day has arrived, traditionally I treat myself to a drink in the members bar after the big race, where I usually lament the fact that I've been telling people to back the winner yet didn't back it myself. This year will be different, because I've not been telling people to back anything.

The story of my summer so far has been getting into a run then a major festival appears and I go to pieces and this week has been no exception, so fingers crossed for today.

Park Stakes Group 2 (7f)

This appears a strong renewal despite the small field with 4 having won at Group level previously. The pace may well be set by Shine So Bright with Turjoman, Azano and Never No More close behind. Sir Dancealot and Breton Rock should be towards the rear held up to come with a run off a strong pace.

Shine So Bright made all to win the City Of York Stakes and set a very strong pace in doing so, apart from Laurens the rest of the field were too far behind to get into the race in the home straight. He may not have things that easy on this occasion. The fast ground will be to his liking and if he can shake off the attentions of other prominent runners he may take some catching. The Lennox Stakes is often a key race for this, Sir Dancealot won that for the 2nd year running last month but has disappointed since. The first occasion on soft at Newbury and then turned out very quickly 7 days later at York where he was 4l behind Shine So Bright and like the rest never looked like getting into it. He has his preferred conditions again today, fast ground and a strong pace to aim at, so with a break he could run a big race. The inexperienced Turjoman looks an interesting runner, he was slow to break at Goodwood but made steady progress to lead 1f out only to be collared late on by Duke Of Hazard. This drop back to 7f with the fast ground will suit and if he learns from that experience he should be a big threat.

Selection:

The pace could collapse in up this long straight as it has all week, Sir Dancealot should benefit from that with his customary late burst of speed.

Champagne Stakes Group 2 (7f)

Won by Too Darn Hot last year and in previous renewals Emotionless and Toronado. Despite the small field this appears a competitive renewal wit favourite Threat having his first outing at this trip. His sire won at 1m and was successful over 7f as a 2yo, plus he gave the impression that this extra furlong would be suitable when winning the Gimcrack at York. He brings top form to the table here and is a worthy favourite.  Royal Crusade won on debut over 7f at Newmarket where he showed a good turn of foot up the hill. He won cosily by a neck but the front pair were well clear of the rest. The 2nd that day Hot Summer has since disappointed in a novice race. Another bringing Group form to the table is Juan Elcano, he was 2nd in the Superlative at Newmarket having won on debut over this trip. He never really looked like getting close and the form of that race looks weak with several that have not troubled the judge since. Fort Myers may well improve for stepping up in trip from 6f but he has looked well held at this level so far.

Selection:
One or two with question marks at this level and a favourite still to race over the trip, so Royal Crusade is taken to improve from his debut win.

St. Leger Stakes Group 1 (1m 6f)

The warm favourite is Logician, he won the main trial at York and has progressed from handicap ranks to take centre stage in this Group 1. I must admit I don't like his running style, he appears a relentless galloper to me and I prefer horses that travel well and have some acceleration thrown in.Usually the O'Brien yard provide a pacemaker for their fancied runner, this year it isn't so obvious but the frontrunner may emerge in the shape of Western Australia, if so Dashing Willoughby is unlikely to be far behind. A strong pace would suit the favourite but I'd still prefer to look elsewhere. Sir Dragonet was all the rage for the Derby after his win at Chester last May, he ended up 5th at Epsom in a bunch finish. He was given a run last month over an inadequate 1m 2f, that will have brushed the cobwebs off for this higher target. He gave the impression he will stay this trip in the Derby and whilst the form of that race is patchy it has provided a Juddmonte winner in the form of Japan as well as Circus Maximus a winner of 2 Group1s at 1m.

Selection:
Sir Dragonet to have the race set up for a late run in the straight by a pacemaker and continue the stable's winning run in this classic.

St. Leger Festival Day 2

Yesterday was disastrous, it's no fun having two selections go out like lights when the race unfolds. West End Girl was at the front of the pack for much of her race, a position that suffered throughout the day due to the strong headwind down the straight. Today the wind is forecast to not be so strong.

Attending today, treating myself and friends to fish and chips at the restauraunt next to the fire station a short walk from the track.Looking forward to seeing Stardivarius live at the track but with his domination of the division plus the short odds I won't be betting in a race that I've slected the winner of the last twice.

Sceptre Stakes Group 2 (7f)

A very open renewal with several needing to step up on achievements so far this season. Despite this being a 7f event the pace may not be too strong, favouring those towards the head of affairs. California Love on the far side may get an early lead, with Di Fede and Farzeen tucked in behind. Breathtaking Look a possible front runner towards the stands side they could initially split into two groups, with far side possibly ahead early on if Farzeen gets close up.

Pretty Baby is penalised 3lb for her win in a Group 3 last May. She has been disappointing in her 2 runs since at Royal Ascot over 1m and Glorious Goodwoodand, these look calmer waters but a return to form has to be taken on chance. Di Fede is yet to win at this level but has looked capable. She ran well to finish 4th in open company at Goodwood but never really looked like being in the mix. One that has looked a potential Group horse is Farzeen, she has won a couple of novice events so far and steps up markedly in class but also deserves her chance. Based on limited evidence she may prefer underfoot conditions a little less firm and has a tendency to be a little keen early on. John Gosden saddles Angel's Hideaway, a filly that hasn't won since her 2yo season, this season she has been 4th in the 1,000 Guineas and 3rd in the Jersey, she does look more suited to 6f.  Mot Juste is another with something to prove. Yet to win this summer and a below par run last time out at Goodwood makes her a risky selection.

Selection:

A tricky opener with a few looking capable but slight preference is for Di Fede who has run promisingly on last 2 outings in open company. This return to her own sex over 7f looks to be her best chance yet of winning at this level.

Mallard Handicap  Class 2 (1m 6f)

A disappointingly low turnout for this handicap but it still appears to be an honest gallop, Genetics has been known to set the pace over 1m 4f but may want to sit tight for a while upped in trip. Connections may want to use the proven stamina of Saroog and Charles Kingsley at the head of hte field. They have a long run to rose hill and the first bend so will have plenty of time to sort themselves out as to running order and may well go round in single file.

Sarrog attempts the hat trick in what looks a weaker renewal than normal. His stable is in excellent form as he tries to defy a 5lb rise for his latest win at Newmarket. This trip is ideal at the moment and he goes well on fast ground. One that has yet to feature at this level is Charles Kingsley. He ran his best yet in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock on soft, coming from the rear to go past beaten horses in what looked a tough race, this smaller field will help but this is a quick turnaround from a very competitive race. Theglasgowwarrior was 3rd in this last year, he has a lot of miles on the clock and looks more suited to 1m 4f.

Selection:

Saroog looks to have a lot in his favour regards form, ground and trip, is unexposed and the 5lb rise may not stop him.

Flying Childers Stakes Group 2 (5f)

This looks to be between A'Ali and Alligator Alley, both bring form from races that are often influential for this, the Prix Robert Papin and the Molecomb. A'Ali steps down a notch in class after his exertions in the Prix Morny over 6f. This trip will suit better, he certainly possesses all the class having won the Norfolk and Prix Robert Papin but this fast ground is an unknown. His sire Society Rock wasn't ground dependent so the conditions may well suit. Alligator Alley was a length behind the smart Liberty Beach in the Molecomb where he found trouble in running. He followed that with a listed win at York and looks an improving 2yo now he's being campaigned over 5f. He came from last to first at York in impressive fashion after being impeded coming out of the stalls.

Selection:

A tight one but preference just goes to Alligator Alley who looks one to keep on the right side of if he continues his improvement at this trip.

St. Leger Festival Day One

I'm not attending on Thursday but will be at the course for Friday and Saturday, also I considefr the festival proper to begin on the Thursday.
Last weekend was a good day despite Sharja Bridge disappointing. Apparate won the Lavazza Stakes at Ascot and looks likely to improve even further at 1m 4f.

The race was run more or less as expected with those on the outside getting across to a prominent position and several stuck in the middle of the pack as they went round the bend. Apparate got a position tight on the rail but a little less forward than ideal. The gaps appeared for him and he came through to win in a very close duel for the line.

Park Hill Stakes Group 2 (1m 6f)

There looks to be enough pace in this to make it a strong test at the trip with Oydis, Peach Tree and Star Terms likely to be in the front pack early on. Peach Tree lost by 22l at Goodwood in the Lily Langtry Stakes to Enbihaar and it's difficult to see those placings being reversed. The winner of that race has dominated fillies & mares middle distance Group 2 races so far this season with her only defeat coming at York to Dramatic Queen. She gained revenge in the Lancashire Oaks where they again fought out a close finish. She demolished the field at Goodwood despite conceding weight, travels well and has a turn of foot. Vivid Diamond is an improving filly and looks an interesting contender. One that could give the favourite a race is Dame Malliot who followed up her win in the Aphrodite Stakes at Newmarket by winning a Group 2 in France on heavy ground. She looks to want the step up in trip and is another with a turn of foot. Her win at Newmarket came on good ground where she cruised through from the rear to win going away.

Selection:

Dame Malliot should continue her improvement especially tried over this longer trip and with a 10lb weight advantage she could  take this.

May Hill Stakes Group 2 (1m)

The Sweet Solera has provided winners of this in the recent past. West End Girl won this year's renewal where she looked a strong filly that would relish the step up to 1m, the 3rd home Dark Lady has since finished 2nd in the Prestige Stakes and won the Dick Poole Fillies Stakes. Cloak Of Spirits looks a smart filly and should be in the mix based on her impressive debut win. Another that comes on the back of a Group win is Boomer,she won the Prestige in what was a bit of a bunch finish but as already mentioned Dark Lady has franked the form. Aiden O'Brien sends over Passion who won a strong looking Maiden over today's trip and she is another with a live chance.

Selection:

West End Girl brings the Sweet Solera form here and may well improve further over this trip.

Saturday 7th September

We got close with Millisle the other day at Salisbury but she was just outstayed by Dark Lady, a filly I'm still convinced needs 7f. It was a strongly run affair so that played into the winner's strengths.
One of the 2yo noted recently ran yesterday at Ascot, Cosmic Power winning at 6/1.

Superior Mile Stakes Group 3 (1m)

The ground is soft at Haydock for what appears to be a strong renewal with all but one of the field passing the official rating trend of 107. The trend that reduces the qualifiers to only 3 is that those that have won or placed at Group level often prevail, Matterhorn has passed that test and the other 2 have yet to run at this level. Matterhorn is likely to be setting the pace.

Current favourite is Sharja Bridge, he steps down in class after finishing 9th in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot and has had a break since so that will have freshened him up and he should like the underfoot conditions, having won on soft and good to soft previously and he will appreciate the strong pace. The form of that Group 1 is quite strong despite it looking a little untrustworthy at the time. Matterhorn was also down the field in the Queen Anne. He was run down in a close finish in the Winter Hill Stakes recently after trying to make all, he will need to show his stamina to win this back down in trip and the ground looks to have gone against him. One that will have his ground is Raising Sand the winner of the International Stakes last time out over 7f at Ascot. He is effective at 1m but does appear to save his best for Ascot. He steps out of handicap company here. What's The Story also steps up in class from handicaps and although he has won once on soft he has a better record on quicker ground.

Selection:

Whilst Sharja Bridge fails on the LTO trend that was in a Group 1 and he will have a combination of soft ground plus a quick pace to aim at and use his useful turn of foot in the closing stages.

Lavazza Stakes Class 2 (1m 2f)

Over to Ascot for this 3yo Heritage Handicap. I'm starting to have a dabble at these races so hopefully I'll land one soon.

Often won by one from the mid to bottom of the handicap with at least 3 season runs. The pace should be strong with the possibility of a battle for the lead between Cirque Royal, Fox Vardy, I'll Have Another, Persian Moon and Zuba. A high draw is often an advantage over this trip as those inside can meet trouble early on or get boxed in, with several from the high stalls likely to want to get to the head of affairs that scenario could be played in this. Baasem has been raised 12lb for his last win at the trip. The way he cruised through that race at Doncaster gives the impression he may well be up to his new mark and having won on fast and soft he looks one to consider here. He is drawn in the centre and often races held up or midfield so may not be best positioned from the stalls and could find some trouble in running. Travel On has been a little sketchy so far this season but has won at the trip and looked to have improved last time out. Never Do Nothing has a decent record at the track having placed twice on 2 runs at Ascot. One that has made steady progress this season is Apparate, a winner at 1m 2f he has gone close at this trip, he travelled well at the July Festival when just losing out in a close finish and must be considered on this fast ground. He is drawn low, which is a concern but usually breaks well from the stalls so a lot may depend if he can get a good prominent position near the rail. Rhythmic Intent may be better suited by some give underfoot.  Fox Vardy is another that cannot be discounted and escapes a rise in the ratings for a 2nd last time out.

Selection:

Apparate is taken to win for the first time at this trip. He fought out a close finish at the July Festival where the 2 principles came clear of the rest. He looks a useful strong running type and has the ground in his favour.

Thursday 5th September

A frustrating day last Saturday. In the Atalanta Stakes Duneflower had the beating of a very disappointing favourite and headed the field inside the final furlong but found Lavender's Blue too strong after found a gap to finish strongly and win going away. She looks an exciting addition gto the mile division. The Solario Stakes was won by Positive in a close finish with the selection Al Suhail in 3rd. He ran a little green and is still improving so should make his mark at Group level sooner or later.

Dick Poole Fillies Stakes Group 3 (6f)

Hidden away in midweek this is a little gem of a race at Salisbury. The ground is currently good to soft but with no rain forecast it may just start to dry out slightly. Likely favourite Summer Romance was a little disappointing in Ascot's Princess Margaret Stakes, where she was keen going to post and despite finding herself behind a wall of horses she was making little progress before switching to the outside where she stated on to little effect. On that run it could be she wants 7f now. Another in that race was Dark Lady she moved into contention but was done for pace as the race unfolded, she is another that strikes me as needing a little further, and looked to have confirmed that by her close 2nd in the Prestige at Goodwood. Also renewing rivalry from Ascot is Good Vibes who was also keen to post after a break, she will need to settle better if she is to play a part and she has since disappointed on two occasions. In fact the form of the Princess Margaret is a little sketchy despite Living In The Past reversing form with the winner in the Lowther several have failed to trouble the judge. Jessica Harrington has some exciting 2yo this season and sends an improving type over for this. Millisle steps up in class and trip but is by Starspangledbanner who won Group 1 races over 6f and she looked ready for the extra furlong when coming clear of the pack with a late run to run down the leader in a listed event at the Curragh.

Selection:
This often goes to an improver with not many miles on the clock and Millisle fits that picture well.

Saturday 31st August

Sandown
Atalanta Stakes Group 3 (1m)

It's difficult to see where the pace may emerge from, Lavender's Blue could provide it but it's unlikely to be too strong. Being at the head of affairs may well be an advantage.

Preference is for those rated at least 105, and at least placed last time out. Based on the OR trend of winners rated 105 or higher this does not look a strong renewal. Only 2 qualify on all trends and both are likely to be the market leaders. Sir Michael Stoute has won this on 3 occasions in the last decade and all have been favourites. He saddles Jubiloso in this year's renewal. She looked a very exciting filly when trouncing a group of colts on her 2nd run. She stepped up to 1m and Group 1 level in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot where she travelled well and finished a creditable 3rd. She returned to 7f at Goodwood in the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes, she found trouble in running and when finally clear to a short while to pick up before coming home with a strong run to again finish 3rd. On that evidence this mile is what she is crying out for, as this may develop into a sprint she may have to race a little more prominently than the previous 2 occasions.

The other qualifier Duneflower looked ready for this step up to Group company when putting in an impressive display at Ascot winning the Listed Valiant Stakes from a useful looking field. She posseses a good turn of foot just like her rival and travelled well in what appeared a slowly run mile. She's learning with every run and could be an interesting filly from the Gosden stable.

Selection:

This is a difficult decision as Jubiloso has looked a class act all season, but preference is for the improving Duneflower. She is a strong finisher and may well put that to her advantage up the stiff finish at Sandown.

Solario Stakes Group 3 (7f)

This has been won by some class acts in the past including Kingman, Masar and last year Too Darn Hot. On that evidence stamina is usually needed to take this as opposed to speed. 

Al Suhail looked impressive winning a novice at Yarmouth with a good turn of foot, the form is yet to be tested but he pulled well clear despite running keenly early on. The pace of this race may well be set up by a pacemaker from the same stable. He is by Dubawi so should have no problem getting a mile in the future. Positive brings Group form to the fore with a 2nd behind Pinatubo in the Vintage Stakes. He was 5l behind but was another 5l clear of the rest and looks one to respect and is anither bred for the mile division by Dutch Art. Visinari was all the rage earlier in the season but had his reputation dented when 4th last time out behind Pinatubo and Positive.

Selection:

A punt is taken on Al Suhail with a pacemaker likely to provide a decent pace to aim at he could use his speed at the business end to win this.